California Forever update

California Forever’s East Solano Plan would create a city of up to 400,000 people on portions of approximately 69,000 acres of Northern California ranchland in the San Francisco Bay Area. The project, funded by Bay Area tech moguls, envisions a new downtown with traditional walkable neighborhoods and a significant employment center. It gained national attention in August 2023, after The New York Times unveiled the mysterious group quietly acquiring large tracts of land.

After tepid public support, the project’s backers pulled a November 2024 ballot measure. They haven’t given up, but instead have agreed to work with the local government agencies to secure rezoning via standard environmental review and land use entitlement and annexation processes.

California Forever has revised and reprioritized its plans for the proposed master-planned development located approximately 55 miles northeast of San Francisco and 40 miles southwest of downtown Sacramento. 

The new approach includes a 2,100-acre advanced manufacturing site, known as the “Solano Foundry.” Unveiled last month at a Reindustrialize Summit held in Detroit, the Foundry is positioned as a response to the decline in domestic manufacturing capacity. California Forever CEO Jan Sramek says the initiative will generate approximately 40,000 jobs across various sectors, including aerospace, robotics, logistics, and energy — a significant increase from their original goal of 15,000 jobs.  The time period for achieving the jobs is not specified, but it’s likely a “build-out” estimate.

While company representatives emphasize the economic and strategic benefits of such a facility, critics contend that similar industrial uses could be accommodated within existing cities. Of course, that hasn’t happened for a variety of reasons, which mainly stem from the protracted environmental review and community approval process that is in place throughout most desirable areas of California. Critics also question whether the initiative serves more as a promotional effort for their larger development proposal.

A study by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute found that the overall development proposed by California Forever would create more than 517,000 permanent jobs in California and $4 billion in ongoing tax revenues annually for the state at full build-out. The study also projects $2.7 billion in ongoing sales and property tax revenue for local governments upon project completion. A summary presentation of the study was emailed by Bay Area Council President and CEO Jim Wunderman to elected officials on August 21, 2025. A full copy of the report is not yet available.

The study estimates that 50 percent of the 517,000 permanent jobs created will be located in the new city. The remaining 50 percent will be distributed across Solano County, neighboring counties, and the state of California. Wunderman wrote: “Based on these findings, the California Forever project in Solano County provides the greatest opportunity Northern California has seen in generations to diversify our economy and create an affordable place where working families can make this great region their current and future home.” 

Local government officials remain divided, with some expressing support for the potential economic diversification and reduction in out-commuting. Others cite concerns about insufficient community engagement and the capacity of local governments to manage such a large-scale development program. The proposal arrives as the county considers broader planning updates, with annexation discussions paused and regulatory streamlining for manufacturing gaining traction at the state level. 

H. Pike Oliver

Born and raised in the San Francisco Bay Area, H. Pike Oliver has worked on real estate development strategies and master-planned communities since the early 1970s, including nearly eight years at the Irvine Company. He resided in the City of Irvine for five years in the 1980s and nine years in the 1990s.

As the founder and sole proprietor of URBANEXUS, Oliver works on advancing equitable and sustainable real estate development and natural lands management. He is also an affiliate instructor at the Runstad Department of Real Estate at the University of Washington.

Early in his career, Oliver worked for public agencies, including the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research where he was a principal contributor to An Urban Strategy for California. Prior to relocating to Seattle in 2013, Oliver taught real estate development at Cornell University and directed the undergraduate program in urban and regional studies. He is a member of the Urban Land Institute, the American Planning Association and a founder and emeritus member of the California Planning Roundtable.

Oliver is a graduate of the urban studies and planning program at San Francisco State University and earned a master’s degree in urban planning at UCLA.

https://urbanexus.com
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