Top-heavy consumer spending in the USA
Since 1970, consumer spending in the United States has grown steadily more concentrated among higher‑income households. In 1970, the top quintile accounted for only the mid‑40‑percent range of all consumer outlays, meaning that more than one‑quarter of households were needed to reach half of all spending. This reflected a mid‑century economy in which middle‑income households still carried substantial purchasing power, and consumption was more broadly distributed across the income spectrum.
By 1980, the top 20 percent of households had increased their share to just under half of all spending. Although still shy of the 50‑percent threshold, the shift signaled the beginning of a structural divergence: income inequality was widening, and consumption patterns were beginning to mirror that trend. The middle class was still central to aggregate demand, but its relative weight was weakening. [1]
The decisive break occurred by 1990, when the top quintile crossed the 50‑percent line and became solely responsible for half of all consumer expenditures. From that point forward, the concentration of spending at the top became a persistent feature of the U.S. economy. [1] Over the 2000s and 2010s, data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the top 20 percent consistently accounted for roughly half or slightly more of all consumer spending. The middle 60 percent of households, once the backbone of consumption, saw their relative share continue to erode. [2]
In 2025, the top 20 percent of U.S. households by income were responsible for approximately 35 percent of all consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CES). However, this figure is widely considered to underestimate the true concentration of spending at the top. [2}
A more comprehensive estimate from Moody’s Analytics, using data from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, suggests that the top 10 percent of households accounted for 49 percent of all spending in 2025. This implies that the top 20 percent likely contributed well over 50 percent of total consumer expenditures—especially given that CES data tends to underrepresent affluent households. [3]
The recent estimate by Moody’s Analytics represents a sharp intensification of the long‑running trend: not only is spending concentrated in the top quintile, but within that group, the upper decile now dominates. In practical terms, the spending power that once required 20 percent of households is now effectively concentrated in half that number.
This shift has broad implications. It suggests that aggregate demand is increasingly dependent on a relatively small, affluent segment of the population whose consumption patterns are less sensitive to economic shocks. At the same time, it underscores the growing fragility of middle‑ and lower‑income households, whose capacity to drive broad‑based economic growth has diminished. The U.S. consumer economy—long celebrated for its breadth—has become markedly top‑heavy, with the upper tier now functioning as the primary engine of spending.
Sources
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Expenditure Surveys – Tables. U.S. Department of Labor. Historical CES tables and aggregate shares, including data for 1961–2011. https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables.htm.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Expenditure Survey Extracts. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Access to CES microdata beginning in 1980. https://www.nber.org/data/consumer-expenditure-survey.
J. Hope King, “Rich Americans Are Powering the U.S. Economy,” Axios, January 22, 2026, https://www.axiosom/2026/01/22/jobs-stock-market-rich-americans.
