Polling about California Forever

May 15

California Forever is a privately led proposal to build a new, master‑planned community on roughly 22,000 acres of an approximately 60,000-acre land assemblage in eastern Solano County, positioned between the San Francisco Bay Area and the Sacramento metropolitan region. Backed by a consortium of technology investors, the project aims to create walkable neighborhoods, large‑scale employment districts, and new infrastructure within what is currently a largely rural landscape. Its location is east of Fairfield and Suisun City, west of Rio Vista, and southeast of Travis Air Force Base.

Late in 2025 and early in 2026, two separate polls — one commissioned by Greenbelt Alliance, which opposes the project, and one by California Forever — produced sharply different readings of public sentiment toward the Suisun Expansion / California Forever plan. The contrast stems from different geographies, different sample sizes, and different question framing.

Key Findings

FM3 / Greenbelt Alliance Poll (Dec 2025–Jan 2026) — Suisun City only

58% opposed the Suisun Expansion Plan
19% supported
23% undecided
Sample: 400 Suisun City likely voters
Mode: Phone + online
Margin of error: ±4.9%

This poll focused narrowly on Suisun City, the jurisdiction considering annexation of California Forever’s land. It found strong, durable opposition, even after respondents heard pro‑project arguments.

Fulcrum Strategy Group / California Forever Poll (Feb 2026) — Countywide

51% support after a brief neutral description
59% support after additional information
Sample: 800 Solano County likely voters
Mode: Phone + online
Margin of error: ±3.5%

This poll surveyed the entire county, not just Suisun City. Support increased as respondents were given more details about jobs, housing, and economic benefits.

Why the Results Diverge

Geography

FM3 surveyed Suisun City only — the community most directly affected by annexation.
Fulcrum surveyed all of Solano County — a broader population less directly impacted.

Question Framing

FM3’s poll was criticized by California Forever as a “push poll,” though FM3 defended its neutrality.
Fulcrum’s poll explicitly measured support before and after providing project details, which tends to increase support.

Sample Size

FM3: 400 respondents
Fulcrum: 800 respondents

Larger samples reduce the margin of error but do not eliminate framing effects.

Bottom Line

Within Suisun City, opposition is strong and consistent (58% opposed).
Countywide, support appears more favorable (up to 59% after additional information).

These polls measure different publics, under different conditions, and therefore should not be interpreted as contradictory so much as reflective of local vs. regional sentiment.

H. Pike Oliver, FAICP

H. Pike Oliver focuses on master-planned communities. He is co-author of Transforming the Irvine Ranch: Joan Irvine, William Pereira, Ray Watson, and THE BIG PLAN, published by Routledge in 2022.

Early in his career, Pike worked for public agencies, including the California Governor's Office of Planning and Research, where he was a principal contributor to An Urban Strategy for California. For the next three decades, he was involved in master-planned development on the Irvine Ranch in Southern California, as well as other properties in western North America and abroad.

Beginning in 2009, Pike taught real estate development at Cornell University and directed the undergraduate program in Urban and Regional Studies. He relocated to Seattle in 2013 and, from 2016 to 2020, served as a lecturer in the Runstad Department of Real Estate at the University of Washington, where he also served as its chair.

Pike graduated from San Francisco State University's urban studies and planning program and received a master's degree in urban planning from UCLA. He is a member of the American Planning Association, the College of Fellows of the American Institute of Certified Planners, the Urban Land Institute, and a founder and emeritus member of the California Planning Roundtable.

https://urbanexus.com/about-h-pike-oliver